Service bosses are expecting nearly 400,000 extra crimes to be committed if the reforms go ahead
Service bosses are expecting crime stats to rise by up to 6% as a result of more offenders on the streets rather than behind bars.
The news comes the day after it was revealed two inmates – Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, 24, and William Smith, 35, were accidentally freed from HMP Wandsworth, with police manhunts underway to catch them.
Plans proposed under the Sentencing Bill to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis include limiting the use of short sentences and releasing convicted criminals earlier in their jail terms.
Police chiefs estimate that the extra strain on resources will cost £300 million to £400 million, but say it is currently "an unfunded consequence".
In the year to June 2025, 6.6. million offences were recorded by police in England and Wales and a rise of 6 per cent would therefore equal around 396,000 additional recorded crimes in one year.
Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who spent 18 months on secondment as a prison governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are planning for an increase in all types of offences.
The probation service is trying to recruit 1,500 officers a year for the next three years to manage demand if the sentences reforms are made.
Mr Devonport said: "We are expecting that while the programmes in the community are being ramped up by the probation service as part of their implementation plan to support offenders to rehabilitate, we expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community.
"I believe in the Sentencing Bill and I believe in rehabilitation but it has to be properly funded.
He added that the rise in police recorded crime in one year is expected to be between 4-6 per cent.
Police chiefs are supportive of the plans to reduce the use of short prison terms, as reoffending rates for prison sentences under less than 12 months currently stand at around 50 per cent.
Chairman of the National Police Chiefs' Council Gavin Stephens said: "We've all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular.
"Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing.
"We want that shift of demand onto us to be properly recognised and properly modelled, so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities."
Two separate manhunts are currently underway to locate Kaddour-Cherif and Williams who were both mistakenly freed from HMP Wandsworth in recent days.
Convicted sex offender Brahim Kaddour-Cherif was let out on Wednesday last week, but the Metropolitan Police was only informed at lunchtime on Tuesday this week that he was missing.
Kaddour-Cherif was serving time for trespass with an intent to steal but has previously committed sexual offences.
Meanwhile, Williams was sentenced to 45 months for multiple fraud offences at Croydon Crown Court on Monday, during which he appeared via a live video link from HMP Wandsworth.
But in a mix up following the court case, he was instead freed.
Smith has links to Woking but could be anywhere in Surrey, police have said.
