The research, which underpins an exclusive LBC Opinion piece by the think tank’s Director of Research Michael McManus, warns that Britain is now a “top-tier target” for Kremlin-backed hackers, with attacks rising sharply in response to UK political and military decisions.
While the war in Ukraine continues to be fought with artillery and missiles, the report says an equally aggressive campaign is being waged in cyberspace. Russian-linked hacker groups have targeted critical infrastructure, government systems and civilian networks across Europe, exploiting what the authors describe as a dangerous gap between modern hybrid warfare and NATO’s Cold War-era approach to collective defence.
One of the most notorious groups identified is Sandworm, a Kremlin-aligned hacking unit accused of working alongside other Russian cyber actors to disrupt energy grids, communications systems and public services. In Ukraine, hackers have been blamed for damaging the country’s air raid warning app and disabling parts of the energy network during sub-zero winter temperatures, actions described as deliberate attempts to increase civilian suffering.
The UK, the report says, has increasingly found itself in the cyber crosshairs. Recorded attacks rose from just seven incidents across the whole of 2022 to 27 in January 2023 alone. British transport systems and public administration bodies have been particularly targeted.
Researchers also found that UK political decisions can act as immediate triggers. Following the announcement that Britain would supply Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, cyber attacks linked to Russia surged nine-fold in a single month. Even official rhetoric has had an impact, with attacks jumping almost fivefold after a government spokesman publicly described Russia as a rival.
The findings suggest Moscow is using cyber operations to apply pressure while staying just below the threshold that might provoke a direct NATO response. That calculation, the report warns, has encouraged increasingly reckless behaviour.
Emma Logan, speaking to the OSCE, said Russia’s cyber threat profile had shifted since the invasion of Ukraine: while the nature of the threat remained broadly the same, “Russia’s risk appetite has grown significantly”. The report notes that even the NHS has been targeted, underlining the potential consequences for civilian life in the UK.
The Henry Jackson Society concludes that Russia’s growing reliance on cyber attacks is likely to continue as the war in Ukraine drags on. It argues that Britain and its allies must urgently strengthen cyber defences and rethink deterrence, warning that “it will take more than a password change” to counter the Kremlin’s digital aggression.
The report calls for a more robust and credible response framework to convince Moscow that cyber attacks on the UK and its allies will carry serious consequences, rather than remaining a low-risk tool of harassment in a modern hybrid war.
