THE dry spell affecting Worcestershire and Herefordshire is so severe that rain may not bring the counties out of drought, a Met Office weather expert has warned.
Autumn rainfall is not guaranteed to reverse the drought conditions affecting most of England and all of Wales, a Met Office weather expert has warned.
Will Lang, the organisation’s chief meteorologist, told the Press Association rain is on its way, but there remains a question mark over how much would fall.
His warning comes as Worcestershire has been hit by a series of fires, including at Lancelott Court in Pershore where two homes were destroyed and 30 homes had to be evacuated and the Government issued a warning of the high risk of wildfires.
GUTTED: The fire has destroyed two homes at Lancelott Court in Pershore (Image: Newsquest)
The most severe fire was in Stourbridge, where 19 homes were destroyed and a further 18 damaged after a wildfire raged through the town.
People across England and Wales will received an Emergency Alert on their phones on Friday at around 7pm because of the high risk of wildfires.
The text warned people not to light anything that could spark a fire, including barbecues, campfires, and fireworks.
Rainfall totals for July ranged from 26 per cent of the expected average for North West England to as little as 1 per cent in the South East.
Fire in Salford Priors near Evesham (Image: Supplied)
Parts of Hampshire, the Isle of Wight and West Sussex did not have a single rain day for 59 days.
Asked whether the Met Office expected rainfall, Mr Lang said: “Having seen virtually no rainfall in southern parts of the UK, we will see some rainfall.
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“‘How much?’ is the question. The answer is probably not too much compared with our forecast.
“It’s looking like the overall amount of rain will still be below normal for the time of year.”
He continued: “Looking forward into the autumn, though, that’s when we’d normally see a change of conditions.
“We do see wetter and windier conditions and we will see more rainfall.
“Again, ‘how much?’ is the question – and whether that’s enough to alleviate things like the current drought problems, we don’t know yet.”
Mr Lang spoke to the Press Association following a visit to the Met Office in Exeter, Devon, by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who met apprentices and staff at the centre.
Earlier on Friday, Mr Burnham was at the scene of a wildfire in Stourbridge in the West Midlands where 54 people have been treated by paramedics, including 19 who were admitted to hospital.
The Prime Minister told broadcasters: “We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Nino and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra.
“So, after fire could come floods.
“We have to face up to the changing climate. I think we need a different debate about that.
“There’s no point denying where we are – we need to face up to it, we need more clean energy, we need to see that transition accelerate.
“Those are all of the issues that, you know, are right now in discussion.”
El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average.
The Met Office’s Professor Adam Scaife previously said that this year’s El Nino will likely cause “a temporary spike in global annual temperature with the residual heat potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850”.
Asked what sort of effects El Nino might have on the country’s weather, Mr Lang replied: “El Nino can start to have an effect on the UK winter.
“So, one of the things it can do is give a little bit of a boost to rainfall in the latter part of the autumn and as we head into early winter.
“We’re not sure that that will happen at this stage, but it’s something that can happen in El Nino conditions.
“So, that’s one thing we’re looking out for in our forecasts and our models.
“Beyond that, it’s really too early to tell.”
